What are the unresolved issues in the Gaza ceasefire deal? The release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, along with the emotional relief it brought, showcased the benefits of Donald Trump's Gaza plan. Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and key negotiator, boasted about the deal's success, emphasizing the flexibility of the 'deal guys' in leaving details for later. Similarly, the Qatari prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, acknowledged that comprehensive negotiations might have prevented the current outcome. However, the challenges of this approach are now becoming apparent, echoing past attempts at lasting peace agreements.
The Oslo Accords, for instance, failed to address crucial aspects, leading to the Israeli far right carving up the Palestinian state with settlements and roads. This pattern raises questions about the Trump plan's potential pitfalls.
Key questions remain: Will Israel truly withdraw its troops? Benjamin Netanyahu's recent statements suggest otherwise, indicating a continued Israeli presence in Gaza. The country's occupation of new territory in Syria and recent strikes in southern Lebanon further cast doubt on the likelihood of a full withdrawal. Additionally, will Hamas disarm? Disarmament is a central tenet of the plan, but Hamas officials have firmly rejected the idea, emphasizing the non-negotiation of their weapons. The group's history of maintaining power through violence and its focus on military infrastructure suggest a reluctance to disarm.
The 'international stabilisation force' is another critical aspect. While the plan mentions its deployment, crucial details remain unclear, including its mandate, cost, and operational scope. The recent grenade attack near UN peacekeepers in Lebanon raises doubts about the force's ability to prevent conflict. Furthermore, will reconstruction efforts be successful? The absence of vital details makes a rapid 'Marshall plan' for Gaza unlikely. Israel's concerns about diverting resources for military use and imposing conditions could hinder progress.
The transition to Palestinian-led governance is another concern. The plan lacks meaningful input from Palestinian civil society, and the involvement of Tony Blair raises questions about credibility. Israel's resistance to Palestinian Authority participation and the potential exclusion of former Hamas members echo the 'deBaathification' disaster in Iraq. A meaningful reconciliation process, allowing all Palestinians to participate, is crucial for a successful deal that benefits Palestinian society.
